With Drupa 2008 on everyone's mind it is good to remember that it takes in reality at least two Düsseldorf cycles for new developments to show up in the majority of GA business operations.

Drupa 2004 had been declared JDF-Drupa. And where is JDF now in reality? Just in nappies, being able to talk a few words: dada., mama, and maybe copy ...

Only mature organisations have proven to be up to the enormous task of implementing the big dream. For the rest of us automated, CIM is on the investment program for the next couple of years. It is not only a matter of money but more important resources and internal and customer adjustment.

So, in reality it will take 7 years in total for this new thing to be applied across industry and regions:
* 2-4 years after the Hooray Days for the manufacturers and developers to comprehend the potential, produce and prove really reliable tools and equipment.
* At least another 2-3 years to have all organisations make the investment, digest the organisational changes and walk their own implementation paths.

That makes seven years to get to mainstream ...

This year two topics are as much hyped as JDF was last time. The Greening of the industry - and our planet - plus Inkjet technology for production printing.

Although "green" issues are important, I believe that in 4 years time the environmental conditions do not change that much of we all would produce the green way. It's the marketing and thus perception for which green issues make the difference. When all possible equipment choices are equal, then Green may be one of the decision points. But compare it to the option of extra airbags in a car and you will see how Green is different. It does not save your kids life as an airbag would do. Nevertheless, the environmental friendliness of vendor A may make a good impression. Just like I prefer a good Italian Roast of coffee over a run of the mill American brand. It sets the mood.

Production Inkjet Printing is something else. That is about new technology and most manufacturers are called to action. Whether it is their own development or a repackaged and improved system from a
colleague they called competitor not long ago. Inkjet is hot. It is the new promise of profit for print.
Having seen a number of innovations in that area it always boils down to changing the business model and that is something you do not overnight. Changing culture, customerbase, client service operations take time. From 2-7 years.

It is good that it coincides with the Drupa cycle. Look today and you know where you have to bring your business tomorrow.

Hans Andriese
Industry analyst and business consultant to medium sized printers