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Introduction
For me the In the Balance forum offered a rare opportunity to take a step back and look at the state of the print industry from a wider perspective. Like many working in a busy production environment, I don't get much time to gather my thoughts, let alone commit them to silicon. I do though always write up my impressions of any event like IPEX, if only as an aid to getting the issues straight in my own mind. This time, I have the advantage of this blog as a focus for my efforts.
While much of what I have presented here may appear pessimistic, it is so only to emphasise the need to address the fundamental issues facing the print industry. In truth, I am a pragmatist, and the overall message here is one of optimism for what I can see is a great future for the industry.
I have avoided specific examples of technology in this post, as they are fairly irrelevant to the bigger picture portrayed here. This of course means that you won't find any product endorsements for Xerox below. I would however like to thank Xerox for affording us the opportunity to participate, and for presenting a stimulating catalyst for debate.
Print in a pickle
Freudian analysis
While it is not generally regarded as constructive to publicly talk down one's industry, an industry collectively holding its tongue as it declined into rack and ruin would undoubtedly be in denial. So, taking the premise that the talking cure could go some way toward healing our ailing industry, I shall be frank about its current state. Let us then face the fact that the traditional print industry currently seems set on a course toward terminal decline.
Barry Hibbert's proposition for the In the Balance forum was that the print industry, although struggling at present, was still 'sexy'. When later this position became the central topic for discussion, after a particularly impassioned defence by Laurel Brunner, the Birmingham audience indulged in a bout of good old British Dunkirk spirit; cheering for pluck in the face of adversity.
I understand entirely Mr Hibbert's outlook on print. I too remember when print held a glamorous appeal as a neo-arts-and-crafts industry. All print employees were by association more creative than the average industrial employee was. I have though to take issue with Mr Hibbert's view that the glamour still prevails. 'Sexy', like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. Given the current state of the print industry, only those intimately attached to it could possibly feel any romantic attraction to it. For most, our industry appears to have degenerated into a gross, bloated, sagging middle-aged frump.
That said, although the print industry has let itself go a bit of late, it is not yet at death's door. The print industry still has the potential to be 'sexy', it just needs to smarten up and get in shape a bit.
Continue reading "A View Beyond the Trenches" »
Most people would say that the printing industry has finally moved from a craft based industry and is now a scientific based industry. This would imply that some Age of Enlightenment has happened to bring us to that point.
Well I would not be too sure of this. Let's examine some issues.
People in the Dark Ages did not consider themselves being in such a condition. They thought they were modern. The Dark Ages were not a time of total ignorance and lack of knowledge. Technology was thriving and so were craft guilds and all kinds of manufacturing. What was lacking was a rational understanding of how things actually worked at more fundamental levels. People at that time did not know that they did not know. They did not have the analytical tools to be able to evaluate the environment they were in and what they did, with great skill, on a daily basis.
This lack of ability for individuals to evaluate the physical world around them made it possible for powerful groups or institutions to dictate how the world worked. This could be the guilds, the Church or kings. This relationship of accepted knowledge and power lasted for quite some time up until the Age of Enlightenment when rational thinking by individuals started to eat away at the structure of accepted knowledge and power. Kings took advantage of this to undermine the authority of the Church and the princes supported the generation of alternate knowledge developed by these individual, who are now considered as the founders of modern science. The ability to critically think about the world based on the generation of theoretical knowledge that could be tested for confirmation, separated the Dark Ages from the Age of Enlightenment. We are still benefiting from the very successful scientific method that was developed.
Now let's look at the printing industry. There has been talk of the printing industry going from a craft based industry to a manufacturing industry. Well this is a mistaken view. The printing industry was always a manufacturing industry. A manufacturing industry uses technology but is it science based. Not always. There has always been the unfriendly view of science in any manufacturing environment. Manufacturers want technology but they are not so interested in the science. They are interested in output.
Continue reading "Is the printing industry still in the Dark Ages?" »
Although it's been more than a week since IPEX concluded, many exhibitors are continuing to highlight their news from the show. Most are touting strong sales or leads from the event--in fact in most cases results seem to have exceeded expectations. IPEX organizers are claiming attendance of around 50,000, with most attendees spending multiple days at the event. Given the size of IPEX, a multiday visit is pretty much a necessity.
As I've said before, trade show attendance is not what it used to be. However, most exhibitors are beginning to understand that the quality of attendees is much better. This is because most attending companies used to send more people to a show, but today are sending only a few key employees who are empowered to make real purchasing decisions. It's a new model for trade shows that is slowly finding acceptance.
The next test for the industry will be On Demand, which last year surprised many with its successful move to Philadelphia. Exhibitors seemed to love the facility, while attendees found it less expensive and had a great choice of hotels within walking distance. I thought it was a refreshing change from New York's Javits Center.
I'll be anxious to see if the peaceful coexistence of offset and digital continues to be a theme.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
A video clip and photos from the In The Balance: Your Choices, Your Success event are available in the Xerox Newsroom.
We have now reached the first weekend of IPEX and it is possible to assess whether the event is a success. That's easy. The feedback from almost every exhibitor is the same; this is a superb show and the results they are getting are beyond their expectations. Visitor numbers are up on the previous IPEX and also on the organisers predictions, and not only that visitors are actively seeking new equipment and are placing orders. This is in all areas of the market. The digital printing suppliers are doing well, but then so are the offset and finishing equipment suppliers.
Up to now I have hardly had a chance even to look at the Inthebalanceblog site let alone to post information to it. I came into IPEX early this Saturday morning to do this before the schedule once again starts the rush from stand to stand and meeting to meeting.
Continue reading "Looking Good" »
A special thanks to our live bloggers, Jim Hamilton and Keith Hevenor. We appreciate you taking time out of your busy IPEX schedules to help share this unique event with those unable to attend. We look forward to seeing further discussion on your posts.
(Left to Right: Jim Hamilton, Keith Hevenor)
Moderator Jeremy Paxman asked each of the panelists to speculate on how IPEX will look in 2014. Some interesting information came out of this.
Bernhard Schreier - there will be fewer equipment suppliers offering more hybrid machines, there will be fewer attendees as the number of printers continues to decline, the global print business will be localized because print jobs will be distributed and printed at the location in which they are needed
Barry Hibbert - print providers need to get out of the areas where there is no growth, successful printers will specialize in what they are good at
Anne Mulcahy - IPEX won't be a printing show, but it will be a communications show, the first question will be what's the application and then the technology to address it will be found
Ed Carr - the print industry must discover how to use data coming out of customers, when that happens then we'll see more targeted smaller runs
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
Early questions from the audience have centered around the coexistence of digital and offset. Both Xerox and Heidelberg claim that although there will always be a battle at the place where digital and offset intersect, that line will continue to move both ways as technology evolves. Heidelberg's Schreier admits that over time, digital will eat into offset in smaller runs, but that there are opportunities for offset in both sheetfed and even at the higher end in areas such as gravure.
Furthermore, Xerox's Mulcahy has pointed out that costs in variable data printing must come down and the ability to manage the data must be improved. An early and persistent obstacle to variable digital printing has been the management of databases.
One audience member has questioned the appearance of both Xerox and Heidelberg on the same stage and wondered whether there might be some future partnership between the two companies. Both Schreier and Mulcahy admitted that they probably wouldn't have been speaking together just a few years ago, but that there is more cooperation than competition between them today.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
With Heidelberg and Xerox on this panel, this is a good time to talk about meeting the needs of the short-run color market. Heidelberg’s position in the short-run color market is an interesting one. It played a pivotal role in the direct-to-press market with the Quickmaster DI, but has now announced that it will no longer manufacture DIs. It championed digital print with its role in the NexPress joint venture, but later sold its interest in NexPress to Kodak. Now it is positioning its computer-to-plate and press technologies for fast make-ready and quick turnaround. In the meantime, companies like Canon, HP, Kodak, Konica Minolta, Océ, Xeikon, Xerox and others are selling production color units and their customers are producing color impressions in growing quantities. And although Heidelberg is abandoning DI manufacturing, other vendors such as Presstek and Screen are bringing new direct-to-press products to the market.
Jim Hamilton
InfoTrends
Barry Hibbert and others are making the point that printing is an exciting industry, but that it isn't well promoted. Edward Carr suggests that the industry is overstaffed and that this drives down salaries and makes the industry less attractive. Hibbert acknowledged this, but said that the workforce is aging and will need to be replaced.
At the same time, there is market consolidation in the printing industry that is due, at least in part, to overcapacity. Bernhard Schreier notes that this is geographically linked, and that in fact while there may be a lot of consolidation in Europe and North America, that there is strong growth in other parts of the world.
The panel has been talking about the cost of color printing. Anne Mulcahy mentioned how the cost of color is dropping. It is interesting to note that the cost of color digital printing is the major factor that limits it to shorter run length work. The irony of the market place today is that high pricing on color digital print makes it attractive for service providers, but inevitably prices will drop and service providers will need to be profitable at those lower levels.
Jim Hamilton
InfoTrends
It is interesting to have Heidelberg and Xerox represented on this panel. In the past, they have been positioned as opposites, with Heidelberg representing the ink-based offset market and Xerox representing digital print and toner. They had been fiercely competitive, starting with Xerox’s big presence at Drupa 2004. Since then, much has changed. Heidelberg has divested its ownership in the NexPress joint venture with Kodak and has moved away from digital print.
IPEX 2006 is the first big international show at which Heidelberg and Xerox are not positioned as major competitors. When Heidelberg sold its interest in NexPress, it agreed to a non-compete clause with Kodak, which limited Heidelberg’s ability to offer digital print products. That non-compete clause will expire in May. Will Heidelberg begin a new digital strategy at that point? It could partner with companies like Canon, HP Indigo, or even Xerox. Early indications are that Heidelberg is positioning itself for a non-digital future. Leading up to IPEX it has been talking up the advantage of computer-to-plate (CTP) and fast make-ready on offset presses. It even announced that it would no longer manufacture direct on-press imaging devices like its Quickmaster DI and Speedmaster DI, although it will continue to support them.
Jim Hamilton
InfoTrends
Bernhard Schreier made the comment that 40 percent of a print job is the paper cost, 30 percent of print job is manual labor, and 11 percent is the equipment. So providers see opportunity to cut labor cost either by outsourcing (as evidenced by the recent trend of pursuing cheaper labor in Asia) or by investing in technology automation (as evidenced by the increasing interest in JDF). But the panel points out that outsourcing only works if the print job is commodity-oriented.
Print service providers must position themselves as partners to their customers and can retain the business by offering value-added service and personalized attention. Will all customers chase a cheaper price, or can print be sold at higher prices for better service?
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
Jeremy Paxman, British broadcaster, author, and reporter, has acknowledged the challenges of the printing industry and the shrinking margins plaguing the print provider. "Printing without Borders" was the first topic tackled by the panel of Ed Carr of the Economist, Anne Mulcahy of Xerox, Barry Hibbert of Polestar, and Bernhard Schreier of Heidelberg. Although Carr noted that the economy is improving, Hibbert cautioned that the industry still suffers from over-capacity. And Mulcahy and Schreier both support the concept of digital and offset coexisting. Providers can choose the print technology that makes the most sense for their business and for the needs of their customers.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
Anne Mulcahy and Bernhard Schreier are a case study in contrasts and similarities. Both grew up in their respective companies and understand the corporate culture intimately. Both are instrumental in their company’s turnaround stories, which involved tough decisions around asset sales and market focus. And yet they are also symbolic of entirely different sides of the printing industry. Mulcahy and Xerox represent the on-demand digital printing side of the market while Schreier and Heidelberg represent offset printing. Today commercial printers are acknowledging a need for both offset and digital technologies, so the irony is that while Heidelberg and Xerox are opposites in some ways, there is an overlap among their customer bases that will likely increase moving forward.
My name is Jim Hamilton and I work for InfoTrends, a market research and consulting firm that focuses on digital documents. In the spirit of disclosure I am providing some details about my participation that relate to this panel.
I was invited by Xerox to be one of two guest bloggers at this event along with Keith Hevenor of Electronic Publishing. I gladly agreed to participate and will be paid an honorarium for doing so.
My area of expertise is production digital printing. I am the director of InfoTrends’ On Demand Printing & Publishing consulting service. Xerox (and most of the other system vendors in the print-on-demand market) are clients of this service, which provides news, analysis, research, forecasts, and 1:1 access to the analysts on my team. Heidelberg was a client of InfoTrends until it sold its interest in the NexPress joint venture with Kodak. Polestar Group is not a client of InfoTrends.
Prior to joining InfoTrends (known at the time as CAP Ventures) I worked for Linotype-Hell, which was purchased by Heidelberg in the mid-1990s. Although my current focus is in production digital print, I have a master’s degree from Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and have interest in areas such as PostScript/PDF, halftoning, print quality, and book printing.
If you have any questions about my background, I would be happy to address those issues.
Jim Hamilton
InfoTrends
As today's speakers take the stage and prepare to dive into the topics at hand, I can't help but wonder what's in store for attendees, both live and virtual. Realizing that it's early morning in the US market, and most from the European market at here at IPEX, I'm not sure what to expect as far as blog participation. As you've read, Jim Hamilton, of InfoTrends, and I are both at the event and will be offering our take throughout the presentations. We hope to hear from some of you online.
I look forward to hearing the perspectives of Xerox and Heidelberg as well as that of the user and consultant community. There is an excellent crowd assembled, and though I'm no expert at estimating crowds, there are at least 1500 here in the room
Stay tuned as things get under way now.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
Xerox has announced the iGen3 90, a 90-ppm version of the iGen3. The list price is $499,999. Initially announced as a 100-ppm product the iGen3 has since been improved to 110-ppm. The iGen3 will now be available in a 90-ppm and a 110-ppm version. The 90-ppm version will be positioned between the iGen3 110 and the high end of the DocuColor series, the DocuColor 8000.
Canon Europe is printing live output from its imagePRESS C7000VP (formerly known as the imagePRESS X) at the show. Canon just announced European pricing and availability for this device, which is a 70-ppm production color printer. The base price including an EFI front end and a high-capacity stacker is €258,000. It will be available in the fourth quarter of this year. Canon says that the product is SRA3+ format (13” x 19.2”), supports substrates up to 300 gsm, and runs all substrates at rated speed.
Canon Europe is preparing for the imagePRESS introduction with plans to significantly increase its headcount for personnel associated with production print. Canon Europe said that it has 167 people in that role now and will increase that level to 312 in 2007 and 474 in 2008.
Canon Europe is also showing the imagePRESS C1, formerly known as the imagePRESS Y. The imagePRESS C1 is a 14-ppm color/60-ppm black & white printer intended for proofing and printing applications. It has a base price of €46,000 and will be available this summer.
Canon Europe will also launch two new color products called the CLC4040 and the CLC5151. These products are based on the CLC 2620 and the CLC 3220 (note: these products are known under the Color imageRUNNER brand in the United States). Canon Europe reports that it has sold 20,000 of the 2620 and 3220 across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The 4040 and 5151 are believed to be 40-ppm and 50-ppm respectively.
Canon USA has not publicly made its plans known for the imagePRESS products, but will likely do so at the On Demand show in May.
Jim Hamilton
InfoTrends
IPEX officially kicked off today with pre-show press conferences from a few vendors. The days of every company making significant announcements are gone. Most are unveiling new products as they become available, because waiting for a major trade show is no longer possible with the accelerated pace of technology. It used to be easy covering a show from an editorial point of view--every exhibitor had a pile of new products. Today, the focus is on initiatives, enhancements to existing products, partnerships, and other non-physical introductions.
Tomorrow Xerox will bring together industry editors, suppliers, consultants, and others in a forum to discuss trends and opportunities within the graphic arts. I'll be there, along with others, and look forward to sharing my experiences live on this blog as the event unfolds.
Be sure to join us in person or online tomorrow.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
Of course there is always the hope that the offset printing process will become more and more consistent and predictable. At these times, when people are going to shows like IPEX, there is always the hope of finding new technologies to improve productivity.
For a long time, I have found it very strange that an industry that needs a more consistent process, still has not one modern commercial press that has positive control of the ink feed that goes into the roller train. There are no mechanical components on these offset presses that directly and positively affects ink feed. In order for the future goal of full automation to be possible, one would think that having a positive control over the most important variables related to colour, which is ink feed, would have long ago been an issue. But it is still not an issue and is ignored as if it did not exist or did not matter.
No matter what weaknesses in press design have happened in the past, the future performance improvement in consistency and predictability will require the positive control of this variable. It is time to wake up and think about this.
Erik Nikkanen
President, Fountech Inc.
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
One of the big stories of 2005 was the way that universal copier/printers (UCPs) hit the mainstream. A fundamental point about these light production devices was the way that they facilitated the ability to economically print black & white and color on the same device. Now "universal" concept is moving to production printing.
At IPEX you will see vendors beginning to focus on making universal production an economic reality through service/supplies incentives and/or new product designs. A significant amount of monochrome volume is already being run on iGen3s because Xerox is making it economically feasible to do so. HP's recent announcement of improved monochrome speed and running cost for the Indigo 5000 make it the first true universal production device. Another interesting development has come from Océ with its VarioStream 9000 series, which was first introduced as a 1/1 device and whose capabilities have grown to support spot color and will ultimately support process color. Other vendors may pursue such scaleable product offerings to address users' needs for mixed color and black & white documents.
My question is this: What do you as print service providers think of this development? Is this an attractive concept and will it make a difference in your business?
Jim Hamilton
Director, On Demand Printing & Publishing Consulting Service
InfoTrends
With IPEX just a few days away, more and more observers are starting to speculate on the health of the event. The same thing happens with every show, but the scrutiny seems more intense on the biggest annual industry shows.
Will it be as big as it has been in the past? How many will attend? These are the questions that most of us focus on, but the answers do not provide a true measure of the success of any show today. In the current environment, fewer companies send a large group of attendees, electing instead to send one or two key people to do the necessary research. The days of traveling to a trade show on an expense account as a perk are long gone.
So in a few weeks, as we put IPEX behind us, I hope that exhibitors and attendees will judge it on quality instead of quantity. The same holds true for On Demand and Graph Expo later in the year. We can't use the free-spending late '90s as a yardstick in today's economy.
Keith Hevenor
Editor
Electronic Publishing
In his March 24th WhatTheyThink.com column, printing industry consultant Dr. Joseph Webb wrote "marketplaces set prices, not companies." His comment reinforced my belief in the importance of finding printing applications with significant profit margins. To find these profits, many print shop owners are looking to digital printing applications, such as variable-data printing (VDP).
In our December 2005 issue, Instant & Small Commercial Printer magazine explored the profit potential of VDP. In this issue, Xerox Corp. Worldwide Graphic Communications Industry Business Customer Business Development v.p. Gina Testa wrote "there can be a road to riches with variable-data printing." She backed up her opinion with industry marketing firm Interquest's projection stating that full-color VDP will account for approximately 60 percent of all digital color printing in 2006.
For the most part, it does seem some print-for-pay companies are reaping good profits from VDP applications. It also seems reasonable to ascertain that their successes will bring more players to the VDP arena. This increase in VDP capacity could create more awareness of VDP among customers thus increasing demand for VDP services. The additional capacity also could create downward pressure on prices.
To what extent, will the marketplace allow printing companies to maintain VDP’s profit margins?
Linda Casey
Editor, Instant & Small Commercial Printer magazine
Innes Publishing Company
As we prepare for IPEX, I´d like to voice one question on many peoples´ minds: Why Birmingham? Just kidding.
Some pundits said digital print dominated PRINT, others noted the proliferation of software and workflow solutions at what was once an exclusively heavy iron show. It will be interesting to see how IPEX shapes up in that regard.
It´s been said digital print's growth is being fueled by monochrome migration, offset replacement and new applications. Do you know of any new application success stories--things being done digitally that didn´t previously exist?
Katherine O'Brien
Editor
American Printer
As the warehousing costs and transportation cost continue to rise, manufacturing a product at the time and place at which the buyer is prepared to purchase it is beginning to sound like a better and better idea.
While it’s certainly hard to manufacture a shirt or a pair of shoes – on demand and potentially customized – in a retail store while the customer waits, there are examples of “production on demand” that are here and now, and make a lot of sense.
OK, ok, “production on demand” for a shirt is called a tailor and for shoes it is a cobbler, I’ll give you that. Still, how many of us have custom made clothing? Further more, how many have bought a “mass customized” product produced in front of our faces to our specifications?
Books on demand seems like the ideal application of production on demand. Especially since so many are returned, remaindered, and pulped. Anything that brings demand and supply closer together has to be a good thing! Still hasn’t happened. To be able to walk into a bookstore, browse a bit, and pick a title or two from a list that would be printed for me while I have a cup of coffee is very exciting. I’m waiting for a shop near me to install one!
I’ve been following the ups and downs of “books on demand” for several years. The On Demand Book Machine patent infringement case against Lightning Source, Ingram, and Amazon stirred up a lot of dust and set everyone’s nerves on edge. At one point, it looked like the broad interpretation of the patent would put an end to print on demand; however the case is in appeal and still dragging on. To see in-depth coverage of the case go to WhatTheyThink.com. You can also see another system from Israel, 1Book, that hasn’t yet been marketed in the U.S.
The latest twist on this concept is a kiosk that allows retailers to produce CDs and DVDs from a catalog of “virtual inventory” in their stores for customers who need wait only a few minutes for a “hot off the presses” product. SoftwareToGo, from Protocall Technologies, is exactly the same idea – download a music album, a video, or a software application from a catalog, and it will be burned onto a DVD or CD while you wait. And – get this – it will imprint the disc, print the jewel case liner and an insert all while you wait. So what’s new about this? Anyone can do this at home? What’s new is that some big names – McAfee, CompUSA, Tiger Direct, and Corel – are climbing onto the band wagon. Looks like this kind of production on demand is going prime time.
I’m waiting for the day when I can get one of those 3-D printers to put on my desk and “print” all kinds of handy dandy gadgets. Won’t be long now!
Gail Nickel-Kailing
principle, Business Strategies Etc.
editor-in-chief, Graphic Communications World
In an article called "The Long Tail" by Wired Magazine writer Chris Anderson, the author suggests that publishers look at the entire life cycle of a book and that they should avoid the temptation to focus on blockbusters and hits, but instead to see the longer term revenue opportunity over the life of the book. It's clear to me that the "Long Tail" thesis is applicable not only to on-demand books but also to web-to-print collaterals. Amazon.com is very much in the "Long Tail" camp with their focus on selection. I'd be interested in knowing what others think about this theory and its application to printed material.
Jim Hamilton
Director, On Demand Printing & Publishing Consulting Service
InfoTrends
Thanks for your comments on the site so far! We’re excited that people have already jumped in and are looking to start conversations. To clear something up that surfaced in the first two comments, we’ll be featuring commentary in the “Posts” on the main page of this blog from a series of guest bloggers, mainly industry journalists and industry analysts. We’ll also include some intriguing questions submitted through the "In The Balance: Your Choices, Your Success” industry forum registration site. We encourage everyone who visits this blog to comment on these thoughts and opinions - including our guest bloggers. If you have a topic that you feel needs to be addressed in the form of a Post – a new discussion string - we encourage you to submit it in the comment section of the Posts or e-mail the idea to info@inthebalanceblog.com with your name, title, e-mail and affiliation.
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